Mortgage Market Update – August 2025: Rates Down, Market Picking Up

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has taken another step into the rate-cutting cycle, lowering the cash rate to 3.60% this month. This move, down from 3.85% earlier in 2025, is already filtering through to borrowers, easing mortgage repayments and giving the housing market a noticeable lift.

1. Rates Are on the Way Down

• The cash rate is now at 3.60%, with markets anticipating a further drop toward ~3.1% by early 2026.
• Major banks have passed on recent cuts in full to both variable and fixed-rate loans, trimming borrowing costs by 25–30 basis points since May.

2. Repayments Are Easing

• The share of household income going toward scheduled mortgage payments has fallen by ~0.3 percentage points from its late-2024 peak.
• Many borrowers are using the extra breathing room to rebuild buffers in offset accounts or increase voluntary repayments.

3. Housing Market Responding

• National housing prices have risen around 3% since January 2025.
• Auction clearance rates are strengthening, and supply in key capitals remains tight, adding to upward pressure on prices.
• Detached home sales are improving, supported by lower interest rates and shorter build times — though affordability challenges persist.

4. Inflation & Economic Outlook

• Underlying inflation: 2.7% — near the midpoint of the RBA’s 2–3% target band.
• Headline inflation is expected to temporarily move above 3% later in 2025 as electricity rebates expire.
• Rents remain a major contributor to inflation, up 4.5% over the year.

5. Risks to Watch

• Upside risk (slower rate cuts): Labour market remains tighter than forecast, and rents stay elevated.
• Downside risk (faster rate cuts): Households remain cautious, opting to save more and spend less, which could slow economic growth.

What This Means for You

If you have a mortgage:

• Expect gradual rate relief into 2026, though it may be modest.
• Watch inflation and job market trends — they could influence how quickly the RBA continues to cut.

If you’re buying or investing:

• The housing market is regaining momentum, but affordability and cost-of-living pressures could limit how far prices rise in the short term.
• Conditions may favour those ready to act before competition intensifies.

View the Full Breakdown

For a deeper dive into August’s RBA decision and what it means for borrowers, watch the full video breakdown here: